Jewellery Market Analysis September 2026: Diamond Prices Stopped Falling & Gold Volumes Didn't
TL;DR:
Diamond prices have stopped falling in 0.30 to 1.50 carat goods. The 1 carat index went flat in July after 13 straight months of decline.
Gold jewellery is earning more on fewer units. Global jewellery volume hit its lowest quarter since the pandemic while spend hit records.
Where a stone was polished now changes its price. Canada carries a 50% US duty. Belgium, Botswana and Namibia carry none.
Two certification scandals broke in 2026. Buyers have new reasons to question paperwork.
The middle of the market is being squeezed. High end is holding. Commercial goods are losing to synthetics.
If you only change one thing this quarter: stop marketing on volume and discount, and start publishing your reasoning on stone selection, origin, and construction. The buyer in this market spends more per purchase and needs more to justify it.
1. The "wait for prices to drop" argument is dead in bridal sizes
Rapaport's 27 August 2026 market comment describes a cautious recovery led by 0.30 to 1.49 carat goods. Price growth in 0.50 carat stones is beginning to outpace 0.30 carat. Some 1 carat categories are rebounding.
Rapaport's index release of 4 August 2026 put numbers on it:
Category | July 2026 movement |
1 carat RAPI | Stable — first flat month after 13 declines |
0.50 carat | +1.8% (best month since March 2025) |
0.30 carat | +1.6% |
3 carat | +0.2% |
The cause is supply. De Beers reported a 2025 average realised rough price of $142 per carat, down 7% year on year, and cut 2026 production guidance to 21–26 million carats from 26–29 million. Alrosa is forecasting a similar reduction.
What this means for your brand
Your bridal customers have spent two years being told to wait. That advice no longer holds in the exact size band most engagement rings sit in.
Say it out loud in your content. "Prices in this size range stopped falling in July 2026" is a checkable claim, sourced to a published index. It gives a hesitating buyer a reason to move now.
Review your holding costs. If you have 0.30 to 1.50 carat stock bought at 2025 prices, it is no longer depreciating on your shelf.
Do not overclaim. The index is flat to slightly up, not surging. Overstating it damages the credibility you are borrowing from the source.
2. Cut proportion is now a number you can sell on
Rapaport's fancy shape commentary reads as a liquidity map:
Moving well
Long fancy shapes — ovals, marquises, emeralds — at 2 carats and above
Marquise is currently the most expensive fancy shape
Antique cuts and styles
Long cushions, trading at a 20% to 25% premium over square cushions
Hard to shift
Fancies with bad proportions are described as illiquid
Princess cuts are seeing demand return, though prices remain low
High-quality marquises, long radiants and long cushions are in short supply. Very well-cut fancy shapes are difficult to source and command premiums.
What this means for your brand
You now have a number to explain a price difference with, instead of a discount to defend it with.
Build a comparison asset. Two cushion cuts, same carat weight, 20–25% apart in price. Photograph both. Explain the proportion. That single piece of content answers the most common objection in fine jewellery retail.
Feature elongated shapes in shoots. Supply is tight, and demand is strong, which means margin holds. Give them the hero slots.
Audit your product copy. If your listings say "oval cut" and nothing else, you are competing on price. Ratio, depth and length-to-width turn a listing into a justification.
Not sure whether your product copy is doing this work? The Chocianaite audit reviews your products, website and marketing strategy, and tells you exactly where the gaps are.
3. Gold: your customer is spending more and buying less
The World Gold Council's Q2 2026 Gold Demand Trends, published 30 July 2026:
Metric | Q2 2026 |
LBMA PM gold price, quarterly average | US$4,506.29/oz (37% above Q2 2025) |
Total gold demand | 1,269 tonnes, flat year on year |
Gold jewellery demand | 278 tonnes — lowest quarter since the pandemic |
H1 2026 total demand value | Record US$380 billion |
Central bank buying | 289 tonnes |
The same split showed regionally in Q1 2026: Chinese gold jewellery demand fell 32% to 85 tonnes, while Chinese spend on gold jewellery rose 16% to US$13 billion.
The Council's outlook for the second half is that high prices will keep pressure on jewellery volumes, with consumers holding rather than selling.
What this means for your brand
Fewer transactions, higher value each. Every metric and every piece of content should follow that.
Change what you measure
Average order value and conversion quality matter more than traffic and unit count
A 20% drop in units with a 35% rise in AOV is a good quarter in this market, and your reporting should say so
Change what you make
Lighter-weight construction, hollow and tube forms, higher gemstone content
Bespoke and made-to-order, where the customer pays for design rather than grams
Silver and vermeil lines to hold the gift price points gold has priced you out of
Change what you publish
Craftsmanship, setting technique, sizing and repair policy — the content that supports a bigger single decision
Cut back on volume-led promotional posting. It works against the grain of a market where the customer is buying once, not often.
4. Where you source now sits on your cost sheet
The United States Trade Representative finalised tariffs of 10% or 12.5% on gemstones and jewellery from 60 trading partners following a forced-labour compliance review.
Origin | US duty position |
EU, Cambodia, Indonesia, Taiwan | Loose stones exempt |
Belgium, Botswana, Namibia | Exempt — cost advantage on high-value goods |
India | 10% |
Australia, Colombia, Thailand | 12.5% |
Hong Kong, China | Additional 12.5% on top of existing Section 301 duties |
50% on polished diamonds, precious-metal jewellery and gold chains, effective 19 August 2026 |
The Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council has publicly argued the 10% Indian duty is unjustified while the EU keeps duty-free access.
What this means for your brand
If you sell into the US, country of manufacture is now a line item, not a backstory.
Check your actual landed cost per origin before your next order. A 12.5% swing wipes out a normal margin cushion.
Get the documentation right. Exemptions apply to where a stone was polished and manufactured, not where it was routed. Without proof of manufacturing origin, the full rate applies.
Turn it into positioning if it favours you. A brand sourcing through Antwerp, Gaborone or Windhoek has a landed cost and a provenance argument at once. That is worth saying on a product page.
UK and EU brands: this is a competitive opening. US buyers are actively looking for exempt-origin supply.
5. Certification is now a live commercial risk
Two separate 2026 cases show both ends of the chain being attacked.
Case one: the certificate
On 20 June 2026, Vietnamese police uncovered a transnational diamond smuggling ring.
Investigators allege more than 28,000 diamonds entered Vietnam across 141 shipments from 2024, with GIA laser inscriptions removed and replaced with codes and fresh certificates from a domestic laboratory. The former director of P-Lab, the certification arm of Vietnam's largest listed jeweller PNJ, is among those implicated.
PNJ's share price fell around 30% by 20 July 2026. Rapaport's 27 August commentary names the Vietnam crisis as a factor worsening already low Hong Kong demand.
Kenneth Scarratt, Vice President of CIBJO, has raised the possibility that coloured stones moved through the same channels.
Case two: the rough
On 31 August 2026, Rapaport reported that the GIA examined a 6.87 carat near-colourless CVD synthetic deliberately shaped to imitate a rough natural diamond crystal. The GIA published the case in the spring issue of Gems & Gemology and believes it is the first recorded instance.
How they caught it:
Shaped to a near-octahedron, but only one set of opposing faces was parallel
Flat faces with parallel polishing lines, rather than the growth steps and trigons found on natural octahedral faces
X-ray Laue diffraction showed two faces consistent with being cut from a block of CVD material
DiamondView imaging showed orange luminescence bands from nitrogen-vacancy centres formed during growth
Type IIa under infrared. Only 1–2% of natural diamonds are type IIa, and those are irregular. Well-formed natural octahedra are almost always type Ia.
The GIA notes the shape required careful processing at significantly lower yield, which points to intent. It also states there is no evidence of widespread substitution yet, and that existing screening instruments could be adapted for rough.
What this means for your brand
Scepticism does not stay contained to the laboratory that failed. It transfers to every certificate a buyer cannot personally verify — including yours.
Name your laboratory. "Certified" with no named issuer is now a weak signal. GIA, IGI, AGS — say which, on the product page.
Show the inscription. A macro photograph of the laser inscription, matched to the report number, is a five-minute shoot and a permanent trust asset.
Write the traceability page you have been putting off. Where the stone was mined, cut, and set. Who by. What documentation travels with it.
If you buy rough directly, address screening publicly. This is a question your customers will start asking. Answering it first is cheaper than answering it defensively.
6. The middle of the market is where the pressure is
High end is holding. Richemont's Jewellery Maisons posted €5 billion operating profit at a 30.5% margin for the year to 31 March 2026. Rapaport reports solid Hong Kong demand for investment-grade 5 to 20 carat stones in D–F, IF–VVS.
Commercial is squeezed. Rapaport reports smaller commercial goods in Hong Kong losing out to synthetics, and Chinese retailers holding lean inventories. In the US, low synthetic prices are described as supporting differentiation.
Lab-grown has found its floor. Average 1 carat lab-grown sat at roughly US$564 per carat in May 2026, against US$3,410 in 2020. Edahn Golan Diamond Research recorded a wholesale decline of approximately 74% between 2020 and 2025. Lab-grown now sits in more than 45% of US engagement rings.
What this means for your brand
If you sell commercial-quality small natural stones, you are competing against a visually identical category priced roughly 80% lower. That is not a marketing problem you can out-write.
Two positions still work:
Position A — go where lab-grown cannot follow Size, quality and rarity that synthetic supply does not credibly replicate. Investment-grade goods, large stones, exceptional colour.
Position B — make the stone a component, not the product Design, brand, craft and finish carry the value. The stone specification becomes one input among several. This is where most independent designers should be playing, and it is where lab-grown becomes an ally rather than a threat.
The position that fails is the undefended middle: commercial natural stones sold on the stone alone.
7. Your watchlist to December
What to watch | Why it matters to you |
Jewellery & Gem World Hong Kong, 14–20 Sept 2026 | Rapaport reports low Chinese demand ahead of the show but expects strong overseas turnout. Attendance tells you whether the recovery is broad or top-heavy. |
US holiday sell-through | US wholesalers have shifted focus to holiday and sub-1 carat orders are picking up. Your Q4 forecast rides on this. |
Rough supply discipline | The price floor depends on producers holding volume back. Alrosa's planned cutting clusters in Smolensk and Yakutia signal movement down the chain. |
Gold price direction | Volumes already contracted at an average above US$4,500/oz. A further rise hits the sub-£500 gift category hardest. |
Qatar Diamond Exchange MoUs | Agreements signed with bourses in Singapore, Shanghai and Tokyo point to Gulf ambitions in trade routing. |
The one-page action list
If you are… | Do this first |
A bridal-focused retailer | Publish the price-stabilisation message. The waiting argument is over in your core size band. |
Selling into the US | Recalculate landed cost by origin and pull your manufacturing-origin documentation. |
A designer-led brand | Move value into design and craft. Stop letting the stone specification carry the pitch. |
Selling gold | Rework assortment for lighter weight and higher gemstone content. Shift metrics to AOV. |
Selling natural stones at any level | Name your laboratory, photograph your inscriptions, write your traceability page. |
Selling fancy shapes | Build the proportion comparison asset. The 20–25% cushion premium is your explainer. |
If this was useful, the next one will be too. Every issue takes what is actually happening in the jewellery market — prices, regulation, platform changes — and turns it into decisions you can make this week. Join the Chocianaite newsletter →
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